Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
8.3 miles South of Winters
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.3 miles South of Winters
38.4081°N, 121.9365°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of May 2026
May 22, 2026 23:00:24 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
534h 38m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
51.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
15.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.97
Predicted M2.97 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
13.1 km
Pred. 5.9 km vs actual 7.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
25ccabd2449563865740fb446ee066c6e0f1f29c356e6a3febf81a4436d57b95
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_092129_pred-38.41--121.94-20260522T2300
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 16:21:33 PST
Source Batch
20260430_092129_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:30.598525+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.