Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
14.1 miles North of Yerington
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.1 miles North of Yerington
39.1827°N, 119.0880°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of May 2026
May 11, 2026 22:26:33 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
270h 5m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
19.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.56
Predicted M3.26 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
16.6 km
Pred. 5.9 km vs actual 10.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
74b8e69dca30acb011535bc17de6583d84b88de3ab4bd97954fb89f7122ed3ce
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_092129_pred-39.18--119.09-20260511T2226
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 16:21:33 PST
Source Batch
20260430_092129_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:30.598525+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.