Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
1.8 miles East of Sebastopol
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.8 miles East of Sebastopol
38.4086°N, 122.7911°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of May 2026
May 01, 2026 03:33:18 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
6h 5m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
51.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
10.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.19
Predicted M2.29 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
7.7 km
Pred. 7.9 km vs actual 0.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7e2a1f2b0be054c5c21b2f2fdaa81cc7bec806272422a42543c45917d8cee5d2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_142733_pred-38.41--122.79-20260501T0333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 21:27:37 PST
Source Batch
20260430_142733_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:31.951048+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.