Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
15.5 miles North of Yerington
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.5 miles North of Yerington
39.2049°N, 119.0927°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of May 2026
May 01, 2026 05:00:33 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
7h 32m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
11.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.19
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
17.2 km
Pred. 7.3 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
244dafc2161ada91b5fd01f6ff38e322f0d2537379d50f542db46ecee568a3a4
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_142733_pred-39.20--119.09-20260501T0500
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 21:27:37 PST
Source Batch
20260430_142733_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:31.951048+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.