Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
12.4 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.4 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2395°N, 119.1298°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of May 2026
May 01, 2026 02:41:01 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
5h 13m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
8.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.07
Predicted M2.53 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
11.8 km
Pred. 4.6 km vs actual 7.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
68e337de32134ed0a17ae8fe29bd16c9d87ad574d18f3f0ad32eff278b68a5d4
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_142733_pred-39.24--119.13-20260501T0241
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 21:27:37 PST
Source Batch
20260430_142733_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:31.951048+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.