Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
31.4 miles South-East of Empire
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
31.4 miles South-East of Empire
40.1731°N, 119.0699°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of May 2026
May 02, 2026 20:53:50 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
47h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
98.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.32
Predicted M3.08 vs actual M3.4
Depth Error
12.2 km
Pred. 2.6 km vs actual 9.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a735038f1f3d8e15486441aa5f3e8118e0c7027edb0d7bf5f1a460ac3d6539cb
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_142733_pred-40.17--119.07-20260502T2053
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 21:27:37 PST
Source Batch
20260430_142733_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:31.951048+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.