Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
45.1 miles South-West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
45.1 miles South-West of Eureka
40.2753°N, 124.6698°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of June 2026
Jun 21, 2026 05:35:06 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1226h 27m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
23.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
2.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.18
Predicted M3.58 vs actual M2.4
- 0.18 over limit
Depth Error
21.1 km
Pred. 5.6 km vs actual 15.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
925d0d76046bb99d42f3e5bba0a3491c8123406bcb038d520c590036af0ee68d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_200750_pred-40.28--124.67-20260621T0535
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 01, 2026 03:07:53 PST
Source Batch
20260430_200750_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:32.824629+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.