Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
46.8 miles South-West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
46.8 miles South-West of Eureka
40.2987°N, 124.7610°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of June 2026
Jun 21, 2026 12:03:11 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1232h 55m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
15.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.79
Predicted M3.19 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
24.9 km
Pred. 9.4 km vs actual 15.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
482afa15cdbfc1e6aa876430dac1f3beec4b8c38363d11bbb371a617f041d145
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_200750_pred-40.30--124.76-20260621T1203
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 01, 2026 03:07:53 PST
Source Batch
20260430_200750_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:32.824629+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.