Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
12.6 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.6 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.3069°N, 119.0314°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of May 2026
May 01, 2026 11:52:00 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
3h 59m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
3.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
2.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.00
Predicted M2.1 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
16.5 km
Pred. 10.0 km vs actual 6.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7462fe839f22b742a2efe748f0637daeef4b360cc72cc4211694d60689348db1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260501_005227_pred-39.31--119.03-20260501T1152
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 01, 2026 07:52:30 PST
Source Batch
20260501_005227_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:20.101676+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.