Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
33.5 miles South-East of Empire
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
33.5 miles South-East of Empire
40.1368°N, 119.0793°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of May 2026
May 01, 2026 14:50:33 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
6h 58m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
95.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.01
Predicted M2.21 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
17.6 km
Pred. 10.0 km vs actual 7.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b6603d2428346c866666dcbbc3508bfd2d009eb7d8a2fcf42c576de005c7ac6d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260501_005227_pred-40.14--119.08-20260501T1450
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 01, 2026 07:52:30 PST
Source Batch
20260501_005227_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:20.101676+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.