Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
5.0 miles West of Old Station
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.0 miles West of Old Station
40.6792°N, 121.5274°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of May 2026
May 08, 2026 11:48:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
171h 55m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
73.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
43.4 h
7.4 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.03
Predicted M2.03 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
15.7 km
Pred. 10.0 km vs actual 5.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2cd5c1c18f2a4bc2399ee767c6c2bfbc0571a5f9c698f21acbf042be99b39dff
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260501_005227_pred-40.68--121.53-20260508T1148
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 01, 2026 07:52:30 PST
Source Batch
20260501_005227_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:20.101676+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.