Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
16.7 miles North-East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.7 miles North-East of Bridgeport
38.4669°N, 119.0812°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of May 2026
May 08, 2026 23:17:43 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
170h 58m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
89.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.08
Predicted M2.28 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
13.5 km
Pred. 4.7 km vs actual 8.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
42c795c4de8cd72cb98bf30ebf8bdbb5e2821bec93e5b2035edef86ce0a0d031
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260501_131907_pred-38.47--119.08-20260508T2317
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 01, 2026 20:19:10 PST
Source Batch
20260501_131907_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:21.654713+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.