Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
13.4 miles North-West of Woodland
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.4 miles North-West of Woodland
38.7927°N, 121.9752°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of May 2026
May 05, 2026 12:22:05 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
88h 2m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
65.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.35
Predicted M1.95 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
1.0 km
Pred. 1.1 km vs actual 0.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b50c17ce4d49f8b5f75239ecf70723ba3797b43d0dc45c9755bc7ccdbae538ac
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260501_131907_pred-38.79--121.98-20260505T1222
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 01, 2026 20:19:10 PST
Source Batch
20260501_131907_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:21.654713+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.