Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
13.3 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.3 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2513°N, 119.0745°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of May 2026
May 02, 2026 15:01:39 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
18h 42m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
9.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
14.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.03
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
20.1 km
Pred. 9.2 km vs actual 10.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
cf526a2459004d1f29b4ac7ecb3c9a84c1856ed6bc44e953b6dc8f8334a65d45
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260501_131907_pred-39.25--119.07-20260502T1501
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 01, 2026 20:19:10 PST
Source Batch
20260501_131907_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:21.654713+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.