Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
31.6 miles South-West of Eureka NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
31.6 miles South-West of Eureka NV
39.2779°N, 116.4697°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of May 2026
May 07, 2026 18:01:47 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
141h 42m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
91.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.07
Predicted M2.07 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
5.9 km
Pred. 4.7 km vs actual 1.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
077f0f7ea18f8bc7b3791c457d824677739d6a8a828edb15b2a45bbc9eb9904f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260501_131907_pred-39.28--116.47-20260507T1801
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 01, 2026 20:19:10 PST
Source Batch
20260501_131907_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:21.654713+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.