Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
8.7 miles South-East of Red Mountain
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.7 miles South-East of Red Mountain
35.3109°N, 117.4876°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of May 2026
May 23, 2026 06:41:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
508h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
62.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.30
Predicted M3.0 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
17.3 km
Pred. 8.4 km vs actual 8.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c3e30a4c26bc06f0ff5cc7c8d34d78f3d48986218c092140f432cc024baa7d9f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260501_192552_pred-35.31--117.49-20260523T0641
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 02, 2026 02:25:55 PST
Source Batch
20260501_192552_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:22.668540+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.