Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
8.5 miles East of Independence
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.5 miles East of Independence
36.7811°N, 118.0456°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of July 2026
Jul 25, 2026 12:27:51 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2026h 1m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
89.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
15.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.85
Predicted M3.25 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
14.4 km
Pred. 8.4 km vs actual 6.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d8ecc1ce312fe1f8c5a87badf3954da798411292a4bf3ba7ff9977d163b59cfc
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260501_192552_pred-36.78--118.05-20260725T1227
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 02, 2026 02:25:55 PST
Source Batch
20260501_192552_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:22.668540+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.