Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
9.4 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.4 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2797°N, 119.1503°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of May 2026
May 27, 2026 03:02:30 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
600h 36m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
10.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
32.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.57
Predicted M2.77 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
19.4 km
Pred. 9.1 km vs actual 10.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1f8c7575696cdfa542f058051eda85d5642555bb32997c21d5c4ba9f486a2cd6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260501_192552_pred-39.28--119.15-20260527T0302
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 02, 2026 02:25:55 PST
Source Batch
20260501_192552_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:22.668540+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.