Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
45.5 miles South-West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
45.5 miles South-West of Eureka
40.3090°N, 124.7390°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of June 2026
Jun 23, 2026 21:14:36 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1266h 48m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
8.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
31.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.27
Predicted M3.27 vs actual M3.0
Depth Error
19.0 km
Pred. 9.0 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fdad6312c0cf317b9c2a7313f5d40b5e80b7fa99423b26182a1d0973c1a69b8d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260501_192552_pred-40.31--124.74-20260623T2114
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 02, 2026 02:25:55 PST
Source Batch
20260501_192552_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:22.668540+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.