Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
3.0 miles South-East of Pinyon Pines
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.0 miles South-East of Pinyon Pines
33.5943°N, 116.4157°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of May 2026
May 10, 2026 05:55:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
189h 3m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
52.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.11
Predicted M1.99 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
12.3 km
Pred. 6.1 km vs actual 6.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fea3d8c7e971481eef5f5391638c109fa2b6901a8b626879218b3819656de7df
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260502_015152_pred-33.59--116.42-20260510T0555
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 02, 2026 08:51:55 PST
Source Batch
20260502_015152_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:15.493074+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.