Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
6.0 miles North-West of Hercules
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.0 miles North-West of Hercules
38.0873°N, 122.3587°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of May 2026
May 04, 2026 19:35:30 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
58h 43m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
20.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
17.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.17
Predicted M2.13 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
6.6 km
Pred. 6.7 km vs actual 0.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d7dc52ff210bec786c4f2ef7b6f9ef084ec10a31d820d1577374ef3cd7bb36c4
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260502_015152_pred-38.09--122.36-20260504T1935
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 02, 2026 08:51:55 PST
Source Batch
20260502_015152_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:15.493074+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.