Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
6.4 miles North-East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.4 miles North-East of Geyserville
38.7965°N, 122.8357°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of May 2026
May 12, 2026 08:12:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
239h 20m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
4.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
14.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.20
Predicted M2.2 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
7.4 km
Pred. 5.6 km vs actual 1.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a54c153e232ea59e86b51fa7d569ea9f7e83dc93e0bba69fb010b88796ff2f13
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260502_015152_pred-38.80--122.84-20260512T0812
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 02, 2026 08:51:55 PST
Source Batch
20260502_015152_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:15.493074+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.