Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
1.2 miles North-West of Landers
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.2 miles North-West of Landers
34.2826°N, 116.4170°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of May 2026
May 10, 2026 05:55:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
182h 41m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
79.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M1.99 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
21.5 km
Pred. 6.1 km vs actual 15.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0ed04ef56326696d83ed954a90182c86bf17e51d248da27eda1431d68ba93133
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260502_081414_pred-34.28--116.42-20260510T0555
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 02, 2026 15:14:17 PST
Source Batch
20260502_081414_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:17.238215+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.