Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
1.5 miles North-East of Johnson Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.5 miles North-East of Johnson Valley
34.3732°N, 116.4473°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of May 2026
May 06, 2026 18:21:20 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
99h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
81.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.08
Predicted M1.92 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
7.0 km
Pred. 2.2 km vs actual 4.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0a4543cd1dbc26cfe6d99873b1377e401fa6c2f068d6cb56e5aa8f771fa3af78
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260502_081414_pred-34.37--116.45-20260506T1821
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 02, 2026 15:14:17 PST
Source Batch
20260502_081414_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:17.238215+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.