Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
8.5 miles North of Livermore
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.5 miles North of Livermore
37.8029°N, 121.7974°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of May 2026
May 06, 2026 17:32:40 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
98h 18m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
63.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
18.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.43
Predicted M1.87 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
15.5 km
Pred. 6.1 km vs actual 9.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
aad058fba267cc73d86e0ceb5236c9058251cea29ddf7f4e38d8c23845a103a5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260502_081414_pred-37.80--121.80-20260506T1732
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 02, 2026 15:14:17 PST
Source Batch
20260502_081414_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:17.238215+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.