Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
8.7 miles South-West of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.7 miles South-West of Warm Springs
38.0803°N, 116.4742°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of May 2026
May 08, 2026 01:52:03 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
130h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
26.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.01
Predicted M2.39 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
14.1 km
Pred. 9.1 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ef4aa592f1e54cc880cff0d27e44b4b268fe25fec80377591a75edf47be06f8b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260502_081414_pred-38.08--116.47-20260508T0152
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 02, 2026 15:14:17 PST
Source Batch
20260502_081414_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:17.238215+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.