Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
8.3 miles West of Malibu
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.3 miles West of Malibu
34.0281°N, 118.9253°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of June 2026
Jun 26, 2026 12:55:00 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1312h 2m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
26.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
29.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.90
Predicted M3.1 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
8.2 km
Pred. 4.4 km vs actual 3.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
34d8a92e317de7e9fc5300629698eedce5439509a122b5723e9b4cdc1d026907
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260502_135217_pred-34.03--118.93-20260626T1255
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 02, 2026 20:52:20 PST
Source Batch
20260502_135217_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:18.145470+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.