Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
46.1 miles South-West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
46.1 miles South-West of Eureka
40.2708°N, 124.6959°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of June 2026
Jun 24, 2026 21:49:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1272h 57m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
13.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.38
Predicted M3.38 vs actual M3.0
Depth Error
13.9 km
Pred. 3.9 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8eaa10cd89a212a4726a10bb3522ba35a0c01203a094aaa4d2831ac724d0ffb1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260502_135217_pred-40.27--124.70-20260624T2149
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 02, 2026 20:52:20 PST
Source Batch
20260502_135217_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:18.145470+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.