Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
1.8 miles North-West of Calipatria
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.8 miles North-West of Calipatria
33.1470°N, 115.5313°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of June 2026
Jun 21, 2026 01:49:05 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1174h 16m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
93.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
26.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.92
Predicted M3.02 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
16.2 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 11.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b990b9bf84c0a685d2e2ffdfa3eeca9dcddf3ca21e3f3ea13205ab0f56995590
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260502_203239_pred-33.15--115.53-20260621T0149
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 03, 2026 03:32:42 PST
Source Batch
20260502_203239_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:19.137176+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.