Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
6.6 miles East of Sky Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.6 miles East of Sky Valley
33.8647°N, 116.2530°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of June 2026
Jun 21, 2026 05:20:11 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1177h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
82.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.28
Predicted M3.28 vs actual M2.0
- 0.28 over limit
Depth Error
17.7 km
Pred. 6.6 km vs actual 11.1 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
82df0827ec2b0aee17c6ec6f146b221f11ce92e042a1f4eb0230828e0a9272ad
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260502_203239_pred-33.86--116.25-20260621T0520
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 03, 2026 03:32:42 PST
Source Batch
20260502_203239_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:19.137176+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.