Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
15.4 miles South of Arbuckle
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.4 miles South of Arbuckle
38.7960°N, 122.0846°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of August 2026
Aug 09, 2026 11:48:33 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
0.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2360h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
60.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
18.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.71
Predicted M3.41 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
3.0 km
Pred. 0.2 km vs actual 2.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7d5cf72ee435f3353d1a9e894e2f468db872ac8a5b1653958060e6a38dc6b567
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260502_203239_pred-38.80--122.08-20260809T1148
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 03, 2026 03:32:42 PST
Source Batch
20260502_203239_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:19.137176+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.