Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
5.8 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.8 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.3577°N, 119.1388°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of May 2026
May 31, 2026 01:07:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
669h 35m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
10.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
26.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.80
Predicted M2.9 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
14.5 km
Pred. 7.4 km vs actual 7.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
532edeb0469f288b97a49397ae02d8f1e4e617635494d9b22d56f46f11f9a191
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260502_203239_pred-39.36--119.14-20260531T0107
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 03, 2026 03:32:42 PST
Source Batch
20260502_203239_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:19.137176+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.