Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
2.9 miles North-West of Moreno Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.9 miles North-West of Moreno Valley
33.9731°N, 117.2642°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of May 2026
May 05, 2026 10:48:20 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
50h 59m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
31.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.38
Predicted M2.58 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
7.0 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 1.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
277811da05aea1650e407bbf14486bf945b2cbf8210d0784ff91d723090a6ac8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260503_004843_pred-33.97--117.26-20260505T1048
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 03, 2026 07:48:46 PST
Source Batch
20260503_004843_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:12.079489+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.