Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
6.8 miles North-East of Pine Mountain Club
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.8 miles North-East of Pine Mountain Club
34.9153°N, 119.0730°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of May 2026
May 03, 2026 05:22:02 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
3.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.41
Predicted M2.59 vs actual M3.0
Depth Error
10.5 km
Pred. 2.8 km vs actual 7.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
32097d91ea108728baa7245101d40671b8a3b2e75de5d788aa052dc0a3b391c1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260503_004843_pred-34.92--119.07-20260503T0522
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 03, 2026 07:48:46 PST
Source Batch
20260503_004843_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:12.079489+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.