Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
7.1 miles North-West of Hercules
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.1 miles North-West of Hercules
38.1144°N, 122.3399°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of May 2026
May 05, 2026 20:58:37 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
61h 9m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
17.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
8.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M2.14 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
4.7 km
Pred. 4.8 km vs actual 0.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d98a192d15b4d4dc7fc465351bb2b06881be8a34a183e3a7be2bdf8ee03c77a0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260503_004843_pred-38.11--122.34-20260505T2058
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 03, 2026 07:48:46 PST
Source Batch
20260503_004843_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:12.079489+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.