Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
10.6 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.6 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2724°N, 119.1244°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of May 2026
May 05, 2026 08:51:16 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
49h 2m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
1.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
2.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.51
Predicted M2.71 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
15.6 km
Pred. 7.9 km vs actual 7.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
352ff7f2c079e5dc0973e04feb3816e3505b202f82cc6b9fce05f76fde148e24
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260503_004843_pred-39.27--119.12-20260505T0851
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 03, 2026 07:48:46 PST
Source Batch
20260503_004843_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:12.079489+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.