Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
45.7 miles South-West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
45.7 miles South-West of Eureka
40.2667°N, 124.6738°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of June 2026
Jun 27, 2026 23:04:55 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1330h 18m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
14.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
38.1 h
2.1 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.99
Predicted M3.59 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
9.7 km
Pred. 1.7 km vs actual 8.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ca7458a02900abade7041f4d00bd293e8d44f2014da48f200144c05df2b6f61c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260503_054621_pred-40.27--124.67-20260627T2304
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 03, 2026 12:46:24 PST
Source Batch
20260503_054621_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:12.883308+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.