Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
10.8 miles South of Pinyon Pines
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.8 miles South of Pinyon Pines
33.4582°N, 116.4446°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of May 2026
May 14, 2026 11:30:16 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
256h 30m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
26.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.10
Predicted M2.3 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
17.1 km
Pred. 6.3 km vs actual 10.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1bfe95548588b820d623159b28d4cd6802885dd4180cfd7128d3c13a5237856e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260503_115941_pred-33.46--116.44-20260514T1130
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 03, 2026 18:59:44 PST
Source Batch
20260503_115941_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:13.787204+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.