Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
10.9 miles South-East of Lockwood Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.9 miles South-East of Lockwood Valley
34.6106°N, 119.0588°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of May 2026
May 13, 2026 21:31:37 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
242h 31m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
26.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
22.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.30
Predicted M2.4 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
15.2 km
Pred. 6.3 km vs actual 8.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e08226f539c6bcb6010807187e9a54c12b865ca53d5138a3163fed71d767c6ff
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260503_115941_pred-34.61--119.06-20260513T2131
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 03, 2026 18:59:44 PST
Source Batch
20260503_115941_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:13.787204+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.