Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
7.2 miles North-East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.2 miles North-East of Geyserville
38.7985°N, 122.8133°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of May 2026
May 12, 2026 03:22:41 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
200h 22m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
3.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.31
Predicted M2.31 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
8.7 km
Pred. 6.9 km vs actual 1.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d299492622d6661ef40e03d897a90f4e94d83e425d7fa5d86cce0dfbbf5eba14
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260503_115941_pred-38.80--122.81-20260512T0322
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 03, 2026 18:59:44 PST
Source Batch
20260503_115941_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:13.787204+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.