Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
10.2 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.2 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2938°N, 119.0996°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of May 2026
May 05, 2026 19:36:59 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
48h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
2.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
8.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.03
Predicted M2.17 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
13.3 km
Pred. 5.6 km vs actual 7.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ddbd99a9f57e9c53e8fc64d5d22308dc9ad2f5b77b1cd2214926fcd492804791
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260503_115941_pred-39.29--119.10-20260505T1936
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 03, 2026 18:59:44 PST
Source Batch
20260503_115941_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:13.787204+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.