Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
30.5 miles South-East of Empire
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
30.5 miles South-East of Empire
40.1948°N, 119.0536°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of May 2026
May 05, 2026 04:53:50 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
33h 54m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
69.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
33.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.14
Predicted M1.96 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
15.0 km
Pred. 7.4 km vs actual 7.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3938d9c076c39e8f8d135ae31ddadc14e4a34ea2dd55fdebcd2c31c3e144d978
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260503_115941_pred-40.19--119.05-20260505T0453
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 03, 2026 18:59:44 PST
Source Batch
20260503_115941_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:13.787204+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.