Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
9.6 miles South of Cuyama
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.6 miles South of Cuyama
34.7942°N, 119.6084°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of June 2026
Jun 01, 2026 08:54:13 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
681h 8m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
99.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.15
Predicted M3.15 vs actual M2.0
- 0.15 over limit
Depth Error
16.1 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 9.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6ce1199e77335a6daed6de9e6fa5c6a901ab1c40f8ee5590aa8f3cd3b47f0760
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260503_164515_pred-34.79--119.61-20260601T0854
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 03, 2026 23:45:18 PST
Source Batch
20260503_164515_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:14.611686+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.