Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
8.7 miles South of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.7 miles South of Silver Springs
39.2742°N, 119.2346°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of May 2026
May 15, 2026 18:46:03 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
283h 0m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
19.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
15.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.55
Predicted M3.15 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
15.6 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 10.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f2a136ebbaf263109c6000c2f54075ed50211b6dcbe7ebdd9df82b8b5830c38b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260503_164515_pred-39.27--119.23-20260515T1846
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 03, 2026 23:45:18 PST
Source Batch
20260503_164515_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:14.611686+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.