Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
11.8 miles South-West of Chiriaco Summit
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.8 miles South-West of Chiriaco Summit
33.5137°N, 115.8090°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of May 2026
May 05, 2026 03:19:35 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
20h 9m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
72.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.78
Predicted M2.52 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
37.2 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 27.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a88406aa87ca2515b9dbd7d4f509fff58138531b9885b3a3bbed15f1a29b65a6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260504_001003_pred-33.51--115.81-20260505T0319
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 04, 2026 07:10:06 PST
Source Batch
20260504_001003_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:08.168648+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.