Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
5.5 miles North-West of Anza
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.5 miles North-West of Anza
33.6120°N, 116.7400°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of May 2026
May 12, 2026 08:25:09 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
193h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
10.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.10
Predicted M2.3 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
7.3 km
Pred. 3.2 km vs actual 4.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a389ddf7f88f23c4fce2a0b1c353c6f499c831004a1dee9012aac9b88086e5d8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260504_001003_pred-33.61--116.74-20260512T0825
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 04, 2026 07:10:06 PST
Source Batch
20260504_001003_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:08.168648+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.