Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
10.3 miles North of Pine Mountain Club
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.3 miles North of Pine Mountain Club
34.9888°N, 119.1122°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of May 2026
May 05, 2026 07:15:24 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
24h 5m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
67.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.38
Predicted M2.58 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
15.1 km
Pred. 5.5 km vs actual 9.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
522e43ae1b242a52f3e54f0ea21195ce9dae622b82ed5a2a037c9f02ebe955d2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260504_001003_pred-34.99--119.11-20260505T0715
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 04, 2026 07:10:06 PST
Source Batch
20260504_001003_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:08.168648+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.