Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
10.3 miles South-East of Red Mountain
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.3 miles South-East of Red Mountain
35.2739°N, 117.4836°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of May 2026
May 12, 2026 06:54:25 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
191h 44m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
30.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.08
Predicted M3.08 vs actual M3.0
Depth Error
16.2 km
Pred. 6.3 km vs actual 9.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
354dc57541fed336a740dae2b24bb3f1c0c5f6b536829305e25f56c35a3e8099
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260504_001003_pred-35.27--117.48-20260512T0654
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 04, 2026 07:10:06 PST
Source Batch
20260504_001003_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:08.168648+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.