Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
5.6 miles South-East of Johnsondale
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.6 miles South-East of Johnsondale
35.9146°N, 118.4743°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of May 2026
May 09, 2026 12:27:56 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
125h 17m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
96.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.72
Predicted M2.82 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
13.5 km
Pred. 6.3 km vs actual 7.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
45fe99060355bf68a5789b42ead2040afe0fdc1814d02492169a823974becc36
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260504_001003_pred-35.91--118.47-20260509T1227
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 04, 2026 07:10:06 PST
Source Batch
20260504_001003_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:08.168648+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.