Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
13.0 miles West of Lida
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.0 miles West of Lida
37.4842°N, 117.7375°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of May 2026
May 09, 2026 21:52:59 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
134h 42m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
98.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
37.5 h
1.5 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M2.24 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
8.2 km
Pred. 1.3 km vs actual 7.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b4e6cc37f04d22f3db3016101f2f1a30afe5d7d4225e7c159e7d73f9e9ed8c44
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260504_001003_pred-37.48--117.74-20260509T2152
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 04, 2026 07:10:06 PST
Source Batch
20260504_001003_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:08.168648+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.